All I Want For Christmas is Revenue: New Holiday Shopping Data Shows How to Earn It

Mariah Carey may still be defrosting, but retail margins are feeling the chill. Our 2025 holiday shopping data reveals the one gift that keeps on giving: loyalty.

Although my girl Mariah reigns as the Queen of Christmas, she’s not the one making sure her loyal subjects have a merry season. That burden falls to retailers — and this year, it’s no small task. 

Retailers face immense pressure to perform for investors and stakeholders. And with rising costs from tariffs and inflation, coupled with cooling consumer sentiment, conditions are unforgiving this holiday season. To unlock growth, retailers are focusing on making satisfied shoppers even happier throughout the post-purchase journey, where loyalty is won or lost.

We surveyed 2,000+ U.S. consumers on when they’ll buy, how they’ll shop, and what retailers can do to earn their trust. Here’s how retailers can make their wish come true and reap the holiday revenue rewards. 

Consumers are cautious but growth is still on the setlist

To set the stage: Today’s retailers are not guaranteed growth amid underwhelming holiday sales expectations. 

U.S. retail sales, for example, are expected to rise 4% year over year in November and December — healthy, but below the 10-year average. Ecommerce twinkles a little brighter, with a forecasted 7 - 9% year-over-year increase. Still, retailer expectation is muted overall:

“This holiday season will be a mixed one for U.S. retailers. Consumers are cautious and facing financial pressure, but they are also feeling the lift from higher wages and a strong stock market.”
‍
— Aaron Cheris, partner in Bain’s Retail practice 

Higher prices and waning consumer confidence are driving the expected slowdown. Tariffs are squeezing margins: While August sales rose 5.5%, the gains were price-driven, with volumes stagnant or falling. Younger, price-sensitive shoppers are tightening their wallets the most. Gen Z plans to cut holiday spending by 23%, essentially erasing last season’s gains.

Despite these pressures, retailers don’t need a Christmas miracle. Instead, they can turn to proven strategies that drive growth and retain revenue. 

Lean into loyalty and sing a different tune

With growth uncertain and consumers cautious, retailers are prioritizing a reliable driver of revenue: loyalty. In 2025, the share of purchases coming from repeat shoppers continues to climb, with Q1 alone seeing a 6% year-over-year increase in this metric. 

Loyal shoppers spend more, too — 20% more this holiday season compared to every new shopper a retailer acquires.

Some of the most successful brands in beauty and fashion are proving the power of loyalty programs:

• Sephora’s Beauty Insider program has nearly 17 million members in North America, responsible for roughly 80% of company sales.
• Ulta Beauty’s loyalty members now represent 95% or more of total revenues.
• Saks OFF 5TH relaunched its OFF 5TH Rewards program, enrolling 2.7+ million members in just a year. Since then, the retailer has seen triggered campaigns double revenue.

The message is clear: When wallets are tight and growth is harder to come by, loyalty keeps retailers’ holiday revenue in tune.

Here’s how to use our consumer data to increase lifetime value with your existing shoppers this holiday season. 

Takeaway #1: Keep early shoppers in harmony with transparent policies

Holiday shopping is nearly here. Our survey found that two in three consumers will start their holiday shopping before Black Friday, and 44% say they’re starting earlier than normal. 

To win over early shoppers, transparency is key. Be sure to delight the 57% of consumers that want clear visibility into shipping and return policies right on the website. 

57% of consumers want clear visibility into shipping and return policies right on the website. 

What’s more, clear shipping policies can guide behavior and help retailers manage costs. For example, if your goal is to encourage early orders, offer free shipping to shoppers who buy in October or early November. This not only incentivizes the behavior you want, but also gives your business more flexibility to use economical carrier service levels while still meeting customer expectations.

Return policies are just as important. If shoppers are buying gifts well before peak season, they need reassurance that returns will still be accepted after the holidays. By aligning shipping and return policies with earlier shopping patterns, retailers can reduce operational strain, cut costs, and build trust with shoppers who are eager to get ahead of the holiday rush.

Takeaway #2: Bring joy to the world when the gift’s on time

More than half of respondents (53%) told us that the estimated delivery dates (EDDs) influence where they shop online this holiday season. But shoppers don’t just want a promise — they want a promise that’s fulfilled. That means delivering orders when you say you will. 

Our research showed 43% of consumers are worried about their gifts arriving on time this year. Because your consumers care about the presents underneath the Christmas tree, they expect you to put them there on schedule. If you do, you’ll earn your shoppers’ business: 56% of consumers said that providing a reliable EDD would increase their likelihood of making a purchase. 

56% of consumers said that providing a reliable EDD would increase their likelihood of making a purchase. 

Keep in mind that while speed used to dominate delivery conversations, shoppers are now willing to trade a little time for value. Our holiday shopping data found a striking 88% would accept slower delivery in exchange for free shipping. Nearly a third (29%) are fine with up to a three-day window, and another 28% would wait up to five days. Just remember that an appetite for slower delivery doesn't mean you can get away with a late one. 

To up the accuracy of your delivery dates, look for EDD solutions that go beyond static estimates. Advanced systems, for example, use artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to continuously adapt based on your unique fulfillment patterns, carrier reliability, and seasonal fluctuations. 

Additionally, flexibility is key. Look for tools that integrate seamlessly with your website and shopping cart, and can dynamically display a single date, show a delivery range, or suppress the promise altogether when confidence is low. In short, providers that make delivery promises both accurate and adaptive turn a traditional pain point into a driver of loyalty and conversion.

Takeaway #3: Strike the right chord with cost-conscious shoppers 

This holiday season, financial pressure is weighing heavily on consumers. Nearly half (47%) say they’re worried about having enough money for gifts — the single biggest concern shoppers expressed in our survey. 

47% of consumers say they’re worried about having enough money for gifts.

When wallets are tight, every decision comes down to value. Two-thirds (67%) of shoppers say price will influence where they buy, followed closely by discounts (61%) and shipping costs (61%). 

Loyalty programs are one of the most effective ways to provide value. By offering discounts and coveted perks to members, retailers can pass on savings strategically — rewarding their best shoppers without sacrificing profitability. 

And with savings being so important to shoppers this year, it’s not surprising that when asked which perks would drive them to join a loyalty program, shoppers overwhelmingly pointed to benefits like free shipping (73%), discounts (65%), free returns (60%), and cash-value points (57%). Offering these benefits ensures revenue while giving consumers exactly what they want — value they can count on.

Finally, if you want loyalty members to return long after the holidays, they say three things make the difference: exclusive discounts (63%), hassle-free returns (58%), and flawless delivery with no delays or errors (57%). 

Don’t be a one-hit wonder: Earn lifelong fans

Repeat purchases aren’t made by chance. They’re earned through consistent value and a seamless post-purchase experience. By offering coveted perks, ensuring smooth returns, and delivering without a hitch, retailers can transform holiday buyers into long-term, high-value shoppers.

Mariah may be the Queen of Christmas, but even she hit a sour note on New Year’s Eve. With loyalty on your set list, your retail performance can stay pitch-perfect all year long.