The state of retail for holiday 2026: Naughty or nice?

So how do things look heading into peak? The short version — shoppers expect to spend more, but they’re paying closer attention than ever to delivery dates, return policies, and everything that happens after they hit “buy.” The 2025 season was the first to top $1 trillion in U.S. holiday sales, and the NRF projects retail will grow about 4.4% across 2026, so the fundamentals for another strong peak are intact.

The nuance is where the money is. Return rates can climb as high as 30% during peak, and nearly 1 in 10 holiday returns is now fraudulent. A reliable delivery date can lift conversion by double digits. And refund speed has become retail’s widest gap between what shoppers expect and what most retailers deliver.

How you’ll grow revenue: Shoppers are still spending, but they expect more value, more convenience, and more certainty. Close the gap after the purchase with reliable delivery, fast refunds, effortless returns, and proactive communication, and you’ll capture more sales and more repeat business.

Let’s look at the biggest holiday revenue opportunities hiding in plain sight.

Accurate EDDs are on every shopper’s wishlist

Let’s start where the journey truly begins: estimated delivery dates. For holiday shoppers, the magic doesn’t peak at checkout. It peaks when the package lands on their doorstep, right on time and just as expected.

70% of shoppers say an accurate delivery date is very important when making a holiday purchase.

At any time of year, delivery reliability matters. But during the holidays, it’s everything. Shoppers are juggling gifting deadlines, last-minute orders, carrier cutoffs, and travel plans. They need to know their gifts will arrive on time.

Our data shows 70% of shoppers say an accurate EDD is very important during the holidays, and nearly half say a reliable date makes them more likely to buy. So how do you get them to hit “buy”?

• Show accurate EDDs on PDPs, in cart, and at checkout
• Add clear delivery timelines so shoppers know exactly what to expect
• Use urgency messaging like “Order by Dec. 12 to get it by Dec. 24,” which can drive up to 5% more conversions (and about 4% more merchandise revenue per visit)

And “accurate” doesn’t mean a guesstimate. It means accounting for all the data: fulfillment speed, carrier performance, origin location, time-in-transit, holiday warehouse hours, and carrier cutoff dates. Get it right and a reliable EDD can lift conversion by double digits. When shoppers trust the date, they stop hesitating. With an always-on, AI-powered engine like Narvar Promise, you can adjust EDDs in real time using the latest performance data, reducing cart abandonment and setting clearer expectations. Get this moment right, and you become their holiday hero.

How you’ll grow revenue: Get your estimated delivery dates right. When shoppers trust their gifts will arrive on time, they hit “buy” with confidence — and keep coming back long after the holiday lights come down.

Guard against grinches with shipping protection

Even when you’ve done everything right, things can still go wrong. And during the holidays, the stakes are even higher. Packages get lost, damaged, or stolen, and what should be a joyful moment can quickly turn into frustration. It can eat away at your margins, too.

How you respond to delivery issues can make or break a shopper’s holiday — and their loyalty. Offering shipping protection gives shoppers peace of mind that if something goes awry, you’ve got them covered. That confidence can be the difference between a one-time buyer and a lifelong shopper.

The risk is real. Our consumer research shows:

• 73% of shoppers have been a victim of porch piracy
• 62% say the threat of porch piracy sometimes or regularly keeps them from shopping online
• $15 billion was the estimated cost of porch piracy to U.S. consumers in 2025

With package volume surging and porch piracy spiking, that anxiety only intensifies during the holidays. Offering protection at the cart, checkout, or even the thank-you page reassures shoppers their gifts will land safely under the tree. Adoption runs about 1 in 4 shoppers overall — and up to 65% among Millennials and Gen X — and it climbs during peak.

Shipping protection offsets the cost of replacing lost or damaged items while adding incremental revenue — delivering around a 1.5% lift in net margin.

Shipping protection is also good for your bottom line. It helps offset the cost of replacing lost or damaged items while adding incremental revenue, often delivering around a 1.5% lift in net margin. What was once an expense becomes a trust-building, revenue-generating add-on.

How you’ll grow revenue: Offer shoppers shipping protection (Narvar Secure) at checkout. Turning potential holiday mishaps into moments of delight builds lasting loyalty, protecting revenue now and planting seeds for future sales.

Tailor season’s greetings from click to Christmas Day

Between the buy button and the doorstep, holiday shoppers will still worry. Offer comfort (and joy!) with tailored updates based on order type, shipping method, or shopper segment. Speak directly to each shopper’s needs, whether it’s letting a VIP know their overnight delivery is on track or nudging a first-time buyer about how to prep for delivery day.

Clear, proactive updates ease the delivery anxiety that 65% of shoppers feel after placing an order. And when brands personalize post-purchase messages based on shopper history or behavior, 96% of consumers say they’re more likely to buy more.

We’ve seen click-through rates jump more than 50% when brands use notification best practices to run timely, segmented campaigns. Narvar customers using segmentation or personalization for dynamic product recommendations and localized content see a 20% lift in engagement, which helps drive shoppers back to the site to buy again.

75% of consumers say texts routinely drive them to make a purchase — proof that SMS is a true revenue lever.

And don’t forget mobile-first outreach. 75% say texts drive them to buy, and 51% now prefer to get order updates via SMS. Mobile outreach helps you cut WISMO queries and build trust with branded, timely messages across SMS, email, and WhatsApp. It’s especially effective during the holidays, when people are stressed, distracted, and glued to their phones.

How you’ll grow revenue: Shoppers engage more when you reach them on the channels they prefer. Personalized, mobile-friendly updates turn routine tracking into trust-building moments — easing holiday jitters, boosting repeat purchases, and strengthening loyalty well beyond the season.

All they want for Christmas is a friction-free return

Returns might not feel like the most festive part of the season, but they can be one of the most powerful revenue drivers. During peak, return rates can climb as high as 30%, and how you handle them can make or break your bond with shoppers.

The data is clear: 76% of shoppers say they’ll walk away after a bad return experience, so how you handle a return directly shapes your future sales. And with nearly 1 in 10 holiday returns now fraudulent, the way you manage them protects your margin, too.

During peak, return rates can climb as high as 30%. How you handle them can make or break your bond with shoppers.

The holiday surge also brings waves of first-time and occasional shoppers, many meeting your brand for the very first time. When returns feel smooth, fast, and transparent, shoppers leave with a positive impression, even if the item didn’t work out. That goodwill fuels repurchases and strengthens your base heading into the new year.

Even returns don’t have to mean lost revenue. Guiding shoppers toward exchanges keeps those dollars with you — think incentives like “Get 10% off when you swap instead of refund.” In fact, retailers can retain up to 60% of would-be-refunded revenue with the right return and exchange options. Offering bonus credit for store returns or same-brand reorders makes it more likely shoppers spend those dollars with you instead of a competitor.

And the process matters as much as the outcome. Easy, self-service return flows cut expensive support calls and manual handling, freeing your team for high-value work during the rush. Faster return processing gets items back on virtual shelves quickly, so you can resell them at full price instead of discounting after the season.

How you’ll grow revenue: Transform returns from a cost center into a holiday revenue opportunity. You’ll keep revenue in-house, spark repeat purchases, and turn even post-holiday headaches into lasting growth.

Turn holiday shoppers into next year’s revenue drivers

The holidays may be frenzied, but they’re also full of possibilities. Every moment after the buy button is a chance to turn one-time browsers into loyal, repeat shoppers. Accurate EDDs, proactive communication, shipping protection, seamless mobile touchpoints, and hassle-free returns help you earn trust, spark joy, and drive revenue long after the ornaments are packed away. That’s retail hospitality, and it’s the real engine of holiday loyalty.

In Miracle on 34th Street, what won everyone over wasn’t just the gifts. It was the unshakable belief that Santa would deliver on his promise. That same trust is what shoppers crave during the holiday rush. Every clear delivery date, proactive update, and hassle-free return is a chance to prove that belief in your brand isn’t misplaced.

So shore up your delivery promises, personalize your messaging, make returns effortless, and give shoppers the peace of mind they need to keep hitting “buy.” The brands that close the gap this season won’t just drive holiday sales — they’ll build the kind of loyalty that carries them well into the new year.