What's really going on with holiday spending

Forty percent of retailers expect shoppers to be more price-conscious and deal-driven this year, a read they tie directly to rising prices.

Shoppers confirm the pressure, but not the conclusion. Sixty-three percent say they'll spend more than last year even as 65% describe themselves as anxious about the season. Those two facts aren't in conflict. A shopper can compare prices, wait for sales, and still spend more overall, because prices are higher, baskets are bigger, or gift-giving simply isn't optional.

The takeaway: shoppers are ready to spend, but they're watching closely, and the retailers who deliver a low-risk, high-confidence experience are the ones who earn that spend, with or without a discount. Here's where retailers and shoppers agree, where they don't, and what separates the two.

Where shoppers and retailers disconnect the most

Not every mismatch matters equally. Some gaps are minor. Others are the retail equivalent of a well-meant gift that gets quietly returned the day after Christmas. These are the ones that move revenue and loyalty this season.

Disconnect #1: Retailers bet on shipping. Shoppers rank it third. 

Fifty-two percent of retailers say shipping costs and free-shipping availability will most influence how shoppers buy this season, a full 10 points ahead of product price and discounts. Shoppers do care about shipping. Seventy-six percent would accept slower delivery in exchange for a free option. But ranked against everything else, shipping lands third for shoppers, behind product price (54%) and a reliable delivery date (50%), with shipping at 48%. 

The move: Keep free shipping as a default lever, but don't let it crowd out the two things shoppers rank just as high: clear pricing and a delivery date they can trust.

Disconnect #2: Shoppers' No. 1 ask is an accurate delivery date. Only about half of retailers prioritize it. 

Shoppers are telling retailers exactly what matters most.

70% of shoppers say an accurate delivery date at checkout is very important when making a holiday purchase, the highest-rated factor in the entire consumer survey.

While 70% of shoppers say an accurate EDD is very important when making a holiday purchase, only about half of retailers treat real-time delivery dates at checkout as a top conversion tactic. Nearly half are leaving the single strongest reason-to-buy on the table. Showing a date only works if the date holds. A promise that slips does more damage than no promise at all. 

The upside when retailers get it right is real: Harry Rosen saw a 13-point lift in conversion on harryrosen.com and a 20-point lift on FinalCut after building that confidence into checkout. 

The move: Treat delivery-date accuracy as the conversion tactic it already is, and invest in keeping the promise, not just displaying it.

Disconnect #3: Refund speed is the widest gap in the report. 

The returns and refund experience is one of the last moments a brand can still make a strong impression on a shopper who didn't get what they wanted the first time. It's also where retailers and shoppers are furthest apart. Eighty-nine percent of shoppers say they're more likely to shop with a retailer that gets refunds back quickly, and retailer investment trails that demand by more than any other finding in the study. Of every gap in the report, this is the widest. 

The move: Treat returns and refunds as a retention lever, not a cost to contain. The distance between a return and a refund is doing more work than the ops team gets credit for.

Disconnect #4: Shoppers are starting early. Retailers aren't planning to meet them there. 

Fifty-eight percent of shoppers say they're starting earlier this year, and 75% expect to begin in October or early November, regardless of what retailers do to encourage it. Retailers have noticed the shift, but more than three-quarters have no plan to act on it. Capturing that demand is about visibility, not price. A shipping deadline tells an already-motivated shopper when to order to make the holiday. A low-stock signal tells them what's still available. Neither needs a discount attached. 

The move: Skip the discount if you want, but don't skip the outreach. Put a deadline or a visibility signal in front of early shoppers now, while the demand is already there.

Disconnect #5: Retailers are cautious about AI. Shoppers are already using it. 

Retailer confidence in AI is broad but shallow. Every retailer surveyed feels at least somewhat confident using AI to improve the post-purchase experience, but only 8% call themselves very confident. Shoppers aren't waiting. A majority already plan to use AI for at least one part of their holiday shopping this year. The demand exists whether or not retailers feel ready for it. 

The move: Don't let internal hesitation slow shopper-facing AI. The risk this season isn't moving too fast, it's moving slower than the shopper already is.

65% of shoppers plan to use AI in their holiday shopping, but only 8% of retailers feel very confident in their AI capabilities.

Where shoppers and retailers agree

The season isn't only about missed signals. The report also maps where retailers and shoppers are already reading things the same way, including proactive issue resolution before it becomes a support problem, and AI-powered delivery-date prediction as a long-term investment. Those points of agreement are worth protecting through peak, not just the gaps worth closing. The full report breaks down both, with the retailer and shopper numbers side by side.

Closing the gap is the gift that keeps on giving

The retailers who win this season won't have the biggest budgets or the flashiest promotions. They'll be the ones who listened, and matched their shipping strategy, delivery promises, return policies, and AI investments to what shoppers are actually asking for.

Good intentions were never the problem. The retailers who turn intention into an experience shoppers actually feel are practicing what post-purchase is really about: brand hospitality, or how taken-care-of a shopper feels in every moment after the sale. An experience that's accurate, fast, low-friction, and personal is what turns a single holiday purchase into a lasting relationship, and it's a gift worth getting right.