Speed isn’t everything: why reliable delivery dates matter

For years, fast shipping was the holy grail of ecommerce logistics. Consumers demanded it, retailers paid a premium for it, and it became the baseline expectation for online orders. 

But things are changing—and fast. 

Recent data shows that speed is no longer king. In fact, according to McKinsey, delivery speed has dropped from the No. 1 consumer priority in 2022 to No. 5 in 2024.

This shift signals a turning point for retailers. The pressure to rush deliveries at all costs is giving way to a more efficient, revenue-friendly priority: reliability.

Speed is out. Reliability is in.

Consumers today are more patient—and more practical. Nearly 90% are willing to wait 2–3 days for a delivery as long as they know when to expect their item, especially if it means avoiding shipping fees. And they’re not just saying it; they’re showing it in their behavior. The urgency to get everything "next-day" is waning, and trust in a promised delivery date is emerging as the new gold standard.

According to McKinsey, 90% of consumers now prioritize delivery reliability over speed. It’s no longer about who can deliver the fastest—it’s about who can deliver when they say they will.

Where strategic retailers pull ahead 

This shift is more than a cultural reset—it’s a strategic advantage. Speed is expensive. Expedited shipping drives up operational costs, pressures fulfillment teams, and often leads to unsustainable practices.

What’s ironic is that despite the industry's obsession with speed, packages are already getting faster on their own. The average delivery time in the U.S. dropped from 6.6 days in Q1 2020 to 4.2 days by Q2 2023—a 40% acceleration.

But here’s the catch: reliability hasn’t kept up. Pre-pandemic, on-time delivery rates hovered around 85–90%. That figure plummeted to 72% in 2020 and, while improving, still hasn’t fully bounced back.

The result? Retailers are delivering faster, but not necessarily better—and consumers are noticing.

The retailer imperative: invest in delivery accuracy

As consumer expectations shift, so must retailer strategies. It’s time to invest in technology that improves delivery promise accuracy, not just fulfillment speed. That means moving away from generic carrier estimates and toward intelligent, data-driven predictions that account for real-world logistics variability.

Enter: Narvar Promise

Narvar Promise is the industry’s leading AI-powered delivery date accuracy software. It doesn’t just show an Estimated Delivery Date (EDD)—it continuously learns and adapts based on a retailer’s unique fulfillment patterns, carrier performance, and seasonal fluctuations. The result is up 95%+ accuracy across the board.

Whether it’s displaying a single date, a range, or hiding the EDD altogether when confidence is low, Narvar Promise personalizes the delivery promise experience to balance consumer expectations with operational realities.

How It Works:

• Four proprietary machine learning (ML) models predict everything from origin times to carrier performance.
• Built-in A/B testing lets retailers find the right balance between speed, confidence, and conversion.
• Custom business logic ensures the system adapts to unique fulfillment constraints.
• Consumer-facing transparency. Promise surfaces the most reliable information at key decision points like product detail pages (PDPs), cart, and checkout, driving trust and reducing cart abandonment.

Conclusion

The race for speed is being replaced by the race for trust. And for retailers, that’s a welcome change. With consumers now valuing predictability over pace, it’s time to rethink your delivery promise strategy.

With Narvar Promise, retailers don’t have to choose between operational efficiency and consumer satisfaction. They can have both—accurately, intelligently, and at scale.

Ready to deliver on your promise? Request a demo here.